What if tomorrow China changes his economy from oil-based to let's say Hydrogen or another alternative energy source ??
We have all the technology, but as long we do not apply it, we leave them an opportunity to out-race our already weak economy.
Let's start with private transport. I remember the story my grandfather
told me about the lazy dog of the milkman in his neighborhood. One day
somebody started feeding the animal pulling the small buggy and
overnight others followed the example ... everybody started to pet and
feed the dog. Within a week the milkman and his dog zigzagged from door to
door.
Grandpa always told me this story with a big smile. As a kid for him
it was funny but it was a real nightmare for the poor milkman who had
to follow his dog, hunting for treats. He pulling the buggy to make his
dog slow down trying to protect his milk bottles.
It is hard for me to imagine how it was in those days, I've seen some
pictures of carts pulled by horses and dogs. This was transport a few
years before World War I (1914-1918). In less then 100 years we moved
from carts and bicycles to car and motorcycle. What a change in such a
relatively short period.
By the way it took less then 2 decades for oil prices to rise from 10 to +100 $.
And still you're thinking the Chinese will not make this change from oil to something else? I can't believe this.
Do you know when the first Japanese car was sold in the USA? 1956
(source : http://www.scaruffi.com/) Back then,
nobody in the USA would have believed me if I had said : "And there are
many more to come!"
Every good American would have answered me : "Nobody can beat Detroit"
"What about 1973?" First real oil crises. Japanese cars used only half of the petrol compared to American cars.
Why Japanese cars are the best seller in USA ? Because American car
manufacturers were practicing what's called "planned obsolescence" and
Japanese developers kept on improving and innovating.
The change is happening :
In 1997: Toyota introduces the Prius, the world's first commercially
mass-produced hybrid automobile, (source :
http://www.scaruffi.com)
2007: Toyota passes General Motors as the world's largest car manufacturer !!!
Japan is a very small country, it's population is estimated at around 127.4 million. But what about China?
With just over 1.3 billion people (one out of every five people on the
planet), China is the world's largest and most populous country.
And what about India?
India is currently the world's second most populous country with 1
billion people. By 2040, India is expected to become the world's most
populous country (by then it'll be home to over 1.5 billion while China
will have a population of under 1.5 billion.) (source :
http://geography.about.com)
They don't have the money to pay the energy-bill and in crisis people
get creative. They will eventually find an alternative for highly
expensive oil consuming cars.
Honestly ? What is more fun then driving your own car ? Anywhere in the world ...



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